Estimating in a Highly Uncertain Context

Half-Day Workshop by Jan De Baere
Thursday, November 10, 2022
13:00 - 17:00 CEST
In-Person, Mechelen, Belgium
Early Bird until Sep. 23: € 200 + VAT
Regular: € 250 + VAT
€ 25 discount for IIBA® members


As a Business Analyst we get or pose this question a lot: "Please give me an estimation or forecast." If you want to know how to get actual valuable answers to this question, by asking the right questions and by looking at the data you likely already have, this workshop is for you!

Sometimes the job — a task, user story, project — is well known and well understood. Sometimes it's highly uncertain. How do we go about it? What answer do we expect to get when we ask the question? What is the impact of the way we are organized on estimations? Sometimes estimations are a gamble, sometimes useful and sometimes they are plain lies. How can we tell the difference?

Classic estimation techniques such as "cutting the elephant into pieces" do not work in a complex context. Even more so, my experience is that in a complex organisation this technique results in an underestimation of the effort & lead time typically of a factor of 3-4. So, what techniques are applicable in which context?

A story of fat tails and common sense. Based on ideas and concepts from the books "Antifragile", "Fooled by randomness", "The Principles of Product Development Flow" any many more. All of this supplemented by experience from the field and practical exercises.


Jan De Baere is organisational coach at Cegeka. He helps organisations evolve from static to dynamic, using social technologies like agile, S3.0, theory U, liberating structures, …


Bert Heymans is a Business Analyst consultant and Lean Management aficionado at The Business Analysts. He’s trainer and coach at the TBA-Academy.

The High-Impact BA

Free Evening Event
Thursday, November 10, 2022
18:00 - 22:00 CEST
In-Person, Mechelen, Belgium
& Online


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Learn from peers and increase your influence.

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  • Panel discussion

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November 10 — Mechelen, Belgium

Spoor 18
Stationsstraat 55
2880 Mechelen, Belgium

Spoor 18 is easy to reach by public transport and car.

Parking is available at the venue.